Florence, South Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

152
FXUS62 KILM 120027
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
827 PM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a gradual return to typical summertime conditions of
afternoon storms and near normal temperatures through the
middle of the week. A weak cold front may drop down through the
Eastern Carolinas by the weekend, possibly bringing drier
weather.

&&

.UPDATE...
Flood Watch updated at 715pm, extended til midnight except
cancelled Georgetown and Williamsburg counties. This due to the
latest KLTX radar trends with activity still capable of
producing flood warning rainfall. As mentioned earlier, much of
the new rainfall is falling across already saturated grounds
from rainfall the past week. The heaviest rainfall runs east of
a line from Hickory Grove to Calabash, and finally making some
push towards the east while weakening-some. Tweaked hourly
grids this evening thru the overnight, mainly POPs and pcpn
type. Ie. less thunderstorm activity over land as we go further
this evening and overnight.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers and storms will continue for the remainder of the
afternoon along a dissipating coastal trough that has shifted
inland with assistance from convective outflow. Convection will
generally spread inland and then northeastward this evening. As
showers dissipate during the convective minimum, light southerly
winds will become calm and patchy fog is likely to develop
overnight. With mid level clouds overhead, confidence in dense
fog or widespread fog in general is low. Patchy fog during the
morning should mix quickly as warm temperatures return.

Clearing early in the day will allow instability to build.
Remnants of the surface boundary will be positioned over the
central Carolinas. Weak ridging aloft and troughing over the
central US will squeeze a plume of southerly moisture advection
northward. Ample moisture and instability should assist in the
development of widespread showers and storms on Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure finally back to a more normal summerlike pattern
with SW return flow and temps back to near or just above normal.
A ridge extending up from the south will maintain a more
westerly flow aloft and a shortwave to the west will begin to
dig and push a front/Piedmont trough eastward through midweek.
Looks like best convective activity Wed aftn will remain
aligned along or ahead of the trough to our west and north with
moisture and shortwave energy riding around the top of the
ridge to enhance it. Some of these storms may reach into the
local forecast area into Wed evening as mid to upper ridge
extending up from the south through the Southeast gets
suppressed farther south as trough digging down from the upper
Great Lakes moves eastward. Overall, expect less convective
coverage Wed with a warmer southerly return flow and temps near
90 most places. Overnight lows will be in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mid to upper ridge to the south will get suppressed farther
south as shortwave to the north pushes front/trough eastward in
deeper westerly flow. This should drive aftn convection and
debris clouds eastward through Thurs aftn which could affect
temps, but overall, a warm start to the day with temps in the
mid to upper 70s will reach around 90 or so. Heat index values
should remain below 105 degrees and therefore do not expect Heat
Advisory at this time.

Shortwave digs down and pushes front eastward. Looks like
front/trough will actually make it into the Eastern Carolinas
and models show it dropping through over the weekend with drier
high pressure building in for the latter half of the weekend
with northerly flow. GFS shows pcp water values up over 2 inches
through Fri but dropping to 1.5 inches or less over the weekend.
Temps will be near 90 most days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The worst thunderstorm activity for aviators attm lies east of
a line from Hickory Grove to Calabash. This activity will affect
ILM with IFR conditions thru 02Z-03Z, followed by MVFR
conditions from light showers thru 07Z. Remaining terminals
will see leftover MVFR light showers thru generally 06Z. There-
after, inland terminals will see IFR conditions from ceilings,
ie sub 1k ft, possibly as low as 300 ft. between 07z and 14Z and
a lesser potential for patchy fog. Coastal terminals overnight
will see patchy fog but ceilings should remain at VFR/MVFR. The
old frontal boundary will transition into a sfc trof across
portions of the Carolinas and will be a source of convergence
for convection to develop and move along. The majority appears
to remain just west thru north of Southeast NC and Northeast SC
and as a result, will only advertise PROB30 groups for potential
daytime Tue convection.

Extended Outlook... Periodic flight restrictions are expected
each day from possible convection and late night into early
morning from fog/low stratus as we transition back to a more
typical summer weather pattern starting midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Southerly flow becomes re-established behind
an inland moving coastal trough this evening. Winds remain light
and seas hover around 2 feet through the end of the forecast
period. Isolated showers and storms will increase each evening.

Tuesday night through Friday...
Expect SW return flow around high pressure east of the waters
from Tues night through Thu night, remaining around 5 to 10 kt
with a slight uptick Wed night. By Fri a front nears the Eastern
Carolinas and it should drop through the waters Fri night with
a wind shift to the NE for the weekend. Seas will remain in the
2 to 4 ft range.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ099-107>110.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...Flood Watch until midnight EDT tonight for SCZ054-058-059.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...21
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...RGZ/LEW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RGZ/21